No. 221: Liquidity Effects of a Wealth Tax on Residential Rental Real Estate

This article examines the liquidity effects of a wealth tax on residential rental real estate. Using data from a real estate corporation, we simulate the effects of a wealth tax on cash flows from the rental operations. The level of detail of the data enables us to conduct analyses at the annual, regional and year of construction level. A comparison with real estate data from other sources supports external validity. The results of the simulation show that the introduction of a wealth tax can significantly reduce the cash flow from rental operations and lead to liquidity problems. On average over all observations, a wealth tax rate of 2% leads to a negative cash flow after all costs. In general, this finding implies that growth-oriented real estate is more affected by a wealth tax in terms of liquidity than rental yield-oriented real estate. Particularly in large cities with high market values but relatively low rents, the liquidity effects can be more than three times as high as in rural or industrial regions – potentially leading to a relative loss of investment attractiveness. As a wealth tax is decoupled from rental income, the tax burden is very sensitive to market developments, including the interest rate environment. As a result, investments in residential rental real estate are exposed to additional uncertainty. This additional tax uncertainty might impair the willingness to invest and should therefore be taken into account in political discussions on the reintroduction of a wealth tax.